Adani Wilmar Share Price Prediction

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Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL), a collaborative enterprise between India’s Adani Group and Singapore’s Wilmar International, has established itself as a formidable contender in the agri-business industry. Since its formation in 1999, AWL has significantly impacted the Indian food industry, carving out a reputation as a top-tier food company. AWL’s creation signaled a new chapter in the Indian agri-business realm. The Adani Group, an international integrated infrastructure conglomerate with robust foundations in logistics, energy, agriculture, and related sectors, partnered with Wilmar International, a major agri-business entity in Asia with operations spanning over 50 countries. This tactical alliance capitalized on the Adani Group’s strong infrastructure and logistics expertise in conjunction with Wilmar’s vast knowledge in oilseed crushing, edible oil refining, sugar milling and refining, specialty fats, oleochemicals, biodiesel and fertilizer manufacturing, and grain processing.

The outcome was a rapidly expanding company, with its primary brand, ‘Fortune,’ becoming a common name in Indian households. Providing an assortment of products such as edible oils, basmati rice, pulses, soya chunks, wheat flour, and others, AWL’s triumph can be credited to its robust commitment to quality, ingenuity, and customer satisfaction. Nonetheless, like all major corporations, AWL has encountered its fair share of obstacles. Recently, the company was put under scrutiny following a report from Hindenburg Research, causing a notable decline in its stock value. This has provoked inquiries, specifically: Can Adani Wilmar bounce back after the Hindenburg report? Our analysis of Adani Wilmar share price prediction will provide some insights.

Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL): A Quick Note

Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL), a multinational food and beverage corporation based in India, is the brainchild of a partnership between Adani Enterprises and Wilmar International. Founded by Gautam Adani in 1999, AWL has become the country’s leading palm oil processor. The company’s headquarters are located in Ahmedabad, India, and it operates 22 facilities scattered across ten states. AWL’s offerings are sold not only domestically but also in markets throughout the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

The Fortune brand, AWL’s premier product line, is famous for its assortment of edible oils and food items. Between 2014 and 2017, the company extended the Fortune portfolio to include packaged commodities like rice, soya chunks, and flour. AWL’s entrance into the personal care space and the Ready to Cook (RTC) product sector was signified by the introduction of the Alife brand in 2019 and 2020. As of 2021, AWL held an impressive 18.3% stake in India’s branded edible oil market.

In an important development, AWL conducted its initial public offering (IPO) from January 27 to January 31, 2022, and made its debut on the stock exchange on February 8, 2022.

Despite the unpredictability of the global economy and the constantly evolving nature of the agri-business industry, AWL maintains a positive outlook. Its commitment to innovation, sustainability, and customer satisfaction, along with its strong infrastructure and logistics prowess, make it well-equipped for sustained growth and prosperity.

Adani Wilmar: Roadmap And Evolution

Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL) has been on an expansion roll, and here’s how it played out:

In 2005, AWL started spreading its wings by taking over two refining plants named Mantralayam and Haldia. From 2006 to 2009, the company didn’t slow down, snapping up crushing and refining units in places like Bundi, Shujalpur, Nagpur, and Neemuch. They also added refining units such as Rajshri Packagers, Acalmar Oils and Fats, and Satya Sai Agroils to their portfolio.

2011 was another big year for AWL as they acquired the Alwar and Mundra castor units, getting into the business of crushing, refining, and industry essentials. They also welcomed Gokul Refoils & Solvent, an edible oil refining company, into the fold.

Fast forward to 2018, and AWL was making waves again, this time by acquiring a refinery from Louis Dreyfus Commodities, an edible oil refinery from Cargill, and rice plants from Ferozepur Foods. They also forged joint ventures with KOG-KTV Foods Pvt Ltd, KTV Health Foods Pvt. Ltd, and Visakha Polyfab Pvt Ltd.

And they didn’t stop there. In 2022, AWL made a significant move by taking over the well-known rice brands Kohinoor, Trophy Royale, and Charminar from Mccormick & Company.

Clearly, AWL has been strategically building its empire, and these acquisitions show just how serious they are about growing their presence in the industry.

Adani Wilmar’s Controversies

In 2016, the Government of Maharashtra stated that Adani Wilmar had violated the Maharashtra State Food and Drug Administration’s regulations. The company was advertising its blended vegetable oil, Fortune Vivo, boasting medicinal benefits, including diabetes management. These claims led to a surprise inspection at Adani Wilmar’s Panvel storage facility by Madan Yerawar, the Minister of State for FDA, because of the misleading details on their product packaging and ads.

The Adani Group is also playing a crucial role in establishing a significant port in Myanmar, leasing land from a corporation managed by the Myanmar military.

In August 2021, the Indian stock market regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), put a hold on Adani Wilmar’s IPO. While the specific reason was not disclosed by SEBI, media speculations hinted that the pause might be linked to an inquiry into Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) in Adani Enterprises, the group’s flagship company.

By June 2022, a report from C4ADS claimed that certain food companies, including Adani Wilmar, were unintentionally supporting forced labor due to their unchecked imports of contaminated palm oil.

On February 9, 2023, the Himachal Excise Department conducted a raid on one of Adani’s warehouses. Adani Watch, a nonprofit organization, points out that Adani, via its partnership with Wilmar, is a major refiner and trader in the palm oil industry, an industry often blamed for widespread deforestation in Southeast Asia.

Hindenburg’s Impact On Gautam Adani

The wealth of one of India’s richest persons took a significant dip following a report from Hindenburg, an investigative institution. Adani Enterprises, and other stocks within the Adani Group, saw a sharp decline after Hindenburg Research, a New York-based research firm, accused the conglomerate of wrongdoing. The group was alleged to have engaged in a longstanding pattern of stock manipulation and financial fraud.

Hindenburg’s investigators argue that the Adani Group has been embroiled in bold stock manipulation and financial fraud activities, amassing a staggering ₹17.8 trillion (US$ 218 billion) over several decades.

According to Hindenburg’s report, the Adani family has maintained control over offshore shell companies situated in tax havens from the Caribbean and Mauritius to the United Arab Emirates. The report alleges these entities have been utilized for corrupt practices, money laundering, and robbing taxpayers while also siphoning off funds from the group’s publicly traded companies.

Hindenburg Research saw an opportunity to capitalize on overvalued stocks, claiming that the shares were inflated by 85%, presenting a chance for short selling. This international activity led to a considerable slump in the share prices of Adani companies.

By the end of February, the market value of Adani companies had nosedived by $134 billion, down to $98 billion. As a result, Adani’s net worth shrunk from around $120 billion to just $46 billion.

Following the publication of the report, claims surfaced that the Adani Group had been cleared by the highest court, causing a significant rally in their companies’ share prices. This throws a spotlight on the Hindenburg report, the catalyst for the sharp fall in Adani stocks. Were the report’s accusations misdirected and damaging? Could it even be viewed as ‘anti-India’?

Adani Wilmar Limited (AWL) began its journey on the public market with its initial public offering (IPO) in February 2022. This was a crucial turning point for the company, symbolizing investor belief in its business strategy and future growth potential. The response to the IPO was overwhelmingly positive, with shares being oversubscribed, signifying robust investor enthusiasm.

In the aftermath of the IPO, AWL’s shares embarked on a journey of fluctuating prices. On the 11th of February 2022, AWL shares made their debut at ₹381 and then rapidly declined to their lowest level of ₹344 on the 11th of March. But this downswing was short-lived. Investors started to show renewed confidence, and the price began a steady climb. During this period, a multitude of factors, such as AWL’s financial results, prevailing market sentiment, and key economic indicators, swayed AWL’s share price.

Several significant events unfolded during this time, which had a profound impact on AWL’s share price. The company’s strategic acquisitions and its venture into new product segments attracted positive market attention. This, in turn, stimulated an increase in AWL’s share price. Continuing its upward trajectory, AWL’s share price broke past multiple Fibonacci channels, culminating in a high of ₹780 by the end of April.

However, a selling spree was triggered soon after, which brought the price down to a low of ₹560. The share price continued to swing erratically for several weeks after this dip. July witnessed a surge in investor interest as the share price started to gather momentum. Breaking through the critical resistance level of ₹700 in August, AWL shares reached their peak at ₹841 in September.

But the subsequent months were not as kind to AWL. A string of controversies and allegations sparked skepticism among investors, and the AWL price fell below ₹500 by the end of 2022. Further compounding the situation were allegations made by Hindenburg, which led to a wave of selling pressure, and the price plummeted below multiple crucial support levels in the first quarter of 2023.

The low point came in February when the price hit ₹360. However, a silver lining emerged when the company won its case in the Supreme Court. This victory injected a dose of confidence among investors, leading to a revival in Adani shares, and the AWL price found a stable footing near the ₹400 mark.

Recently, the AWL share price witnessed a solid bearish trend in the last few days, which has brought more selling pressure to the market. The market is heavily influenced due to the poor performance of the Adani group; however, it maintained a bullish move above the key support level and held its price stability. Despite facing critical support levels in the past, AWL has managed to display a surprising recovery and is now above the fear zone. A thorough technical analysis of Adani Wilmar share price reveals bullish indicators, which may soon send the price to new resistance levels. Investors should exercise caution as the short-term movement for AWL appears volatile. Any upward correction in the AWL share price may not be sustainable as Adani Group is still in a bearish phase.

According to TradingView, the AWL price is currently trading at ₹406.7, reflecting a decrease of over 0.2% in the last 24 hours. Our technical evaluation of AWL price indicates that the bearish momentum may soon fade as bulls may make a comeback to prevent the price from dropping below ₹396. Examining the daily price chart, AWL’s share price has found support near the ₹395 level, from which the price may try to gain further momentum and breach upcoming Fib channels. As the AWL price continues to face bearish domination to surge above the consolidation pattern, bears may soon gain confidence and open short positions, pushing the price to lower levels in the coming days. The Balance of Power (BoP) indicator is currently trading in a bearish region zone at 0.13, hinting at a downward correction ahead.

To thoroughly analyze the price of Adani Wilmar shares, it is crucial to take a look at the RSI-14 indicator. The RSI indicator recently experienced a solid surge as AWL price made a high near ₹419 after recovering from the low of ₹398 on 25 July. The trend line is heading toward the midline as it currently trades at level 48, and there’s an increased buying pressure building up to begin an upward correction for the AWL price. It is anticipated that AWL’s price will soon attempt to break above its 38.6% Fibonacci level to achieve its short-term bullish goals. If it fails to surge above this Fibonacci region, a downtrend might be on the horizon.

As the SMA-14 continues its upward swing toward the 44 level, it trades slightly below the RSI line, potentially holding promises of the stock’s upward correction on the price chart. If AWL shares surge, it can pave the way to resistance at ₹423. A breakout above will drive the share price toward the upper limit of the Bollinger band at ₹440.

Conversely, if the AWL fails to hold above the critical support level of ₹395, a sudden collapse may occur, resulting in further price declines and causing the AWL share to trade near the Bollinger band’s lower limit of ₹365. If the price fails to continue a trade above ₹365, it may trigger a more significant bearish downtrend toward ₹337.

Considering the prevailing market dynamics and AWL’s growth trajectory, we foresee a promising future for AWL’s share price in 2023. We project an average trading price of approximately ₹500, with a potential trough of ₹430 and a peak of ₹520.

As we transition into 2024, we predict a sustained rise in AWL’s share price. Accounting for an annual increment, we estimate an average price of ₹550, with a floor value of ₹480 and a ceiling value of ₹570.

By 2025, we anticipate AWL’s share price to achieve an average of ₹600, with a possible low of ₹530 and a high of ₹620. This forecast integrates the company’s consistent growth and the promising prospects of the agri-business sector.

For 2026, we envisage an average trading price of ₹650 for AWL, with a base value of ₹580 and a maximum potential of touching ₹670. This projection incorporates the company’s strategic maneuvers and wider market trends.

By 2027, we expect AWL’s share price to attain an average of ₹700, with a potential low of ₹630 and a high of ₹720.

Transitioning into 2028, we predict an average price of ₹750 for AWL, with a base value of ₹680 and a peak value of ₹770. This forecast reflects the company’s sustained growth and the burgeoning potential of the agri-business sector.

For 2029, we envisage an average trading price of ₹800 for AWL, with a floor value of ₹730 and a maximum potential of reaching ₹820.

By 2030, we expect AWL’s share price to achieve an average of ₹850, with a potential low of ₹780 and a high of ₹870. This forecast is predicated on Adani’s market supremacy and the overall economic landscape.

Seven assessments from three distinct analysts have been provided, offering long-term price objectives for Adani Wilmar Ltd. The consensus target price for Adani Wilmar Ltd. is set at approximately ₹615.00. This collective estimate implies a potential surge of 52.35% from the latest closing price of ₹405.00.

JP Morgan, an international brokerage firm, maintains the perspective that the share price of Adani Wilmar, the most recent addition to the Adani Group listed on exchanges, may exhibit stability. The firm has initiated an analysis of the stock.

The brokerage’s market experts believe that the stock is presently valued appropriately. They have allocated a ‘neutral’ rating to the stock, with a base case target price of Rs 370.

Adani Wilmar’s extensive product range, tactical expansion strategies, and robust market footprint render it a compelling proposition for investors.

Nonetheless, as with any investment, AWL shares carry their own unique risks. The agri-business industry is influenced by a multitude of factors, including variations in commodity prices, shifts in regulatory policies, and environmental issues, all of which can affect AWL’s operational performance.

Furthermore, recent accusations leveled against the Adani Group and the ensuing instability in its share prices underscore the potential hazards associated with such an investment. Despite these risks, an investment in AWL at a price of ₹355 could yield profitable returns over an extended period.

It’s crucial for potential investors to conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before investing in AWL or any other stock. It’s also advisable to consult with a financial advisor or investment professional to ensure that any investment aligns with your overall financial goals and risk profile.

Adani Wilmar’s Financial Performance: Q1 Report

Adani Wilmar, a prominent player in the FMCG sector, recently unveiled its Q1 updates for the fiscal year 2023-24, shedding light on its most recent product introductions during this timeframe. The firm recorded a 25% annual volume increase in the edible oil segment for the quarter, attributing this surge to strong consumer demand and a low base in Q1FY23 due to elevated edible oil prices sparked by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Adani Wilmar has been consistently focusing on broadening its domestic oils portfolio, with a particular emphasis on mustard oil and rice bran health oil.

In the food and FMCG division, the company reported that its food business maintained its upward growth trend, with segment revenues escalating by 30% year-on-year to surpass Rs 1000 crore for the quarter on a standalone basis. This expansion was propelled by a boost in sales of branded products in the domestic market. “The majority of our branded food items witnessed a volume increase of over 25% for the quarter, with several of the new products introduced in the market in the past 1 to 2 years demonstrating even more rapid growth,” the company declared.

Conclusion

The performance of Adani Wilmar, as evidenced by its share price and financial outcomes, showcases its dedication to progress and ingenuity. The company’s recent product introductions and attention to expanding its domestic oils portfolio highlight its capacity to adjust to market shifts and consumer preferences.

Nonetheless, AWL, like any other business, has encountered its fair share of hurdles. Accusations of regulatory breaches and market fluctuations have put the company’s core principles to the test.

However, AWL’s successful navigation through these brings its strong leadership and strategic foresight.

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