- AAVE saw lackluster exchange netflows OVER the past month
- The weekly bullish market structure break was a powerful signal
Aave [AAVE] bulls have tenaciously defended the $140 support level over the past two months. However, the altcoin has a $200 target and is likely to go much further, based on the higher timeframe price charts.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Its low 30-day correlation of +0.29 was not surprising though. While AAVE fought to defend $140 and reclaim $150 as support, Bitcoin has steadily trended higher over the past six weeks.
However, long-term investors have little reason to be dejected just yet.
Signs of a sustained uptrend are yet to present themselves
Source: IntoTheBlock
AMBCrypto found that the netflow data over the past week and month were hardly encouraging. The -435 AAVE outflows amounted to a mere $61k accumulated. The +16.66k AAVE 30-day change represented inflows of $2.3 million into exchanges.
Source: Santiment
Santiment data also revealed that the dormant circulation was quiet over the past month. This highlighted subdued token movement between addresses, compared to the wave of selling in mid-July.
Hence, there likely isn’t a threat of high selling pressure in the next few days.
The falling MVRV ratio showed that 3-month holders were at a loss on average. This could incentivize slight selling pressure during a bounce towards $160. It also seemed to be an indication that profit-taking activity won’t stall bullish efforts.
These bullish efforts have already begun, but they might be more clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. For instance – The unbroken uptrend of the mean dollar invested age (MDIA) signified stagnation. Its descent would signal greater movement and new buyers and in turn, this could herald a sustainable uptrend.
AAVE gives strong clues on the higher timeframes
Source: AAVE/USDT on TradingView
The weekly chart underlined a downtrend in the second half of 2021, one that continued throughout 2022. The $100-$120 area formed a resistance zone that wasn’t convincingly broken for 805 days.
Read Aave’s [AAVE] Price Prediction 2024-25
This long-term consolidation was broken in mid-September when the previous high at $153 was broken with a weekly session close above. Since then, AAVE has faced rejection at $180 and played defense at the $140 area.
The weekly market structure break six weeks ago was a sign of bullish intent. In the coming months, the $290, $400, and even the all-time high of $661 would be viable bullish targets. A slump in the MDIA would likely be an early sign that the altcoin is ready for a strong run upwards.
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