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Over the past few weeks, the Bitcoin price has maintained a somewhat healthy momentum, forging minor swing highs and lows in its bull run revival. Interestingly, this early-week upward movement has been corrected following the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.
All in all, the overall positive outlook for the premier cryptocurrency has remained, even though it has been observed to be against historical perspective. An on-chain analyst on social media platform X has delved into this strange phenomenon in the BTC market and the possible reasons behind it.
Bitcoin’s Historical Correlations With Macro Instruments
In a recent post on the X platform, an on-chain analyst with the pseudonym Darkfost broke down what, until recently, used to be conventional expectations in the Bitcoin market relative to broader macroeconomics. The crypto pundit mentioned that investors consider key indicators when trying to decipher what institutional sentiments and the broader state of global liquidity may be like.
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The key indicators investors highlighted in this analysis include the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of major foreign currencies, and the US Treasury Yields, which basically represent the return investors earn on United States government bonds.
According to Darkfost, the above chart illustrates a well-known macro principle: when both the DXY and bond yields are on the rise, capital tends to flee risk assets (one of which is Bitcoin). As a result, the premier cryptocurrency becomes susceptible to corrective movements.
According to the on-chain analyst, this principle is backed by historical trends, as bear markets in crypto have coincided with strong uptrends in both yields and the DXY.
On the other hand, when there is a loss of momentum in DXY and yields, investor appetite tends to shift towards risk. The reason for this, Darkfost explained, could be expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which fuel bullish sentiment across crypto markets.
BTC Breaks Conventional Macro Logic
In the post on X, Darkfost then went on to point out that the current BTC cycle has been unusual. The online pundit reported that there has been a decoupling between the Bitcoin price and bond yields, which manifests as a seeming annulment of the usual macro principles.
The analyst noted that the Bitcoin price continues to maintain its upward movement, despite yields reaching some of their highest levels in Bitcoin’s history. But this holds, he was sure to note, when the DXY declines.
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What this anomaly suggests, Darkfost inferred, is that Bitcoin has taken on a new role within the macro landscape, one that increases its perception as a store of value. To take it further, this means that BTC, as of now, may react a little less conventionally to the macro forces believed to influence the crypto market.
As of this writing, the Bitcoin price sits just beneath $106,000, reflecting an almost 2% jump in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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